Alberta Bound
Alberta's Population Surge
In the poetic verses of Gordon Lightfoot, Alberta proudly basks in the glow of prairie lights, signaling a consistent stream of newcomers and solidifying its reputation as a demographic magnet in Canada.
Interprovincial Migration: An Unmatched Streak Since 1971
During the third quarter of 2023, Alberta experienced a noteworthy net interprovincial migration, welcoming over 17,000 individuals from various provinces and territories. Significantly, this marks the fifth consecutive quarter with a net migration of at least 10,000—an unmatched streak dating back to 1971, according to the earliest available data.
BC and Ontario: Principal Contributors to the Upturn
Beyond the Chinook winds, the western breezes bring a significant number of residents from British Columbia and Ontario. These two provinces emerge as the primary sources of Alberta's population surge, constituting over two-thirds of net interprovincial migrants in the third quarter and more than 70% over the past four quarters.
Housing Affordability and Job Market Dynamics
A noticeable shift in migration patterns surfaces when examining housing affordability. Compared to the past, a greater proportion of migrants from BC and Ontario, where housing costs are notably higher, indicates that affordability plays a pivotal role in Alberta's allure. Concurrently, a robust job market, outperforming the national average, adds another dimension to Alberta's appeal.
Employment Growth: Surpassing Expectations
Alberta's job market has sustained robust growth, exceeding the national average. Despite a slightly elevated unemployment rate in November (5.9% vs. 5.8% nationally), the gap is narrowing. Moreover, the job vacancy rate in Alberta has recently surpassed the national rate for the first time since early 2016.
Population Growth Metrics - Record-Breaking Quarterly and Annual Expansion
As of October 1, 2023, Alberta's population stands at 4.76 million, reflecting an impressive quarterly growth of 1.3%, the highest on record. Over the past year, Alberta's population has surged by 4.3%, surpassing the national increase of 3.2%. This annual growth rate is the highest since 1981, welcoming 195,058 new residents in the past four quarters.
International Migration Takes Center Stage
International migration emerges as the primary catalyst for population gains, contributing over 39,000 in the third quarter alone—a record high. Non-permanent residents (NPRs) lead this surge, accounting for the majority of the gain at 74,920.
Natural Increases and Demographic Dynamics
While international migration dominates, natural increases (births minus deaths) also play a role, buoyed by Alberta's younger population. Over the past four quarters, natural increases have contributed nearly 16,000 to the overall population growth.
Conclusion
In summary, Alberta's population surge is a nuanced phenomenon propelled by a convergence of factors—housing affordability, a thriving job market, and robust international migration. As the prairie lights continue to shine, Alberta's allure remains potent, painting a vibrant picture of growth and prosperity on the Canadian landscape.